Earnings Projection Calculator

The file should have at least 6 columns.

Input Data:

The Earnings Projection Model assigns weights (coefficients) to a company's accruals and operating cash flows over the past three years. This model requires a profit condition in year t. Specifically, simulation results demonstrate that the prediction of profit projections is highly effective for public companies with assets exceeding IDR 10 trillion.

The earnings projection is determined using the formula:

Li,t+1 = 0.0212 + 0.1103 AKOi,t + 0.3662 AKOi,t-1 + 0.1165 AKOi,t-2 +
0.0768 AKRi,t + 0.3358 AKRi,t-1 + 0.1031 AKRi,t-2
Variable Definitions
  • Li,t+1: Earnings projection, the predicted net profit value for the next period (t+1).
  • AKOi,t: ocf_lag1, the value of Operating Cash Flow for company i in the current period (t).
  • AKOi,t−1: ocf_lag2, Operating Cash Flow one period prior (t-1).
  • AKOi,t−2: ocf_lag3, Operating Cash Flow two periods prior (t-2).
  • AKRi,t: accrual_lag1, Accrual for company i in the current period (t).
  • AKRi,t−1: accrual_lag2, Accrual one period prior (t-1).
  • AKRi,t−2: accrual_lag3, Accrual two periods prior (t-2).

The AKR value is obtained by subtracting the company’s net profit from its operating cash flow for the same period. The projected profit, operating cash flow, and accruals are divided by total assets at the beginning of the year to address company size bias.

Data Input Description
  • Symbol: Enter the company code.
  • Year: Enter the year for OCF_lag1 or accrual_lag1.

Example (Year = 2023):

  • OCF_lag1 / accrual_lag1 → 2023 data
  • OCF_lag2 / accrual_lag2 → 2022 data
  • OCF_lag3 / accrual_lag3 → 2021 data
  • Earnings projection → 2024 profit projection

All figures are divided by total assets at the beginning of the year.